Forecasting Wheat Crop Gap in Libya by Using Exponential Smoothing ‎for the Period (2017-2022)‎

Abstract

Wheat considered one of the strategic crops in Libya, with social, political and economic dimensions. ‎The Research problem indicated that the total production of wheat is still insufficient to meet the ‎consumer needs, which led to the rise of the food gap, which reflected the decline in the proportion of ‎self-sufficiency of this crop.‎

The study aimed to identify the present situation and development in producing and consuming wheat ‎in Libya. Exponential smoothing models were used relying on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and ‎Food and Agricultural Organization during the period (1980-2013).‎

The results indicated the efficiency of Exponential Smoothing method in comparison with other ‎methods applied in the study, depending on forecasting power criteria most important of which is ‎‎(RMSE) criterion. Research results also showed that there was a significant increase in wheat gap, and it ‎predicted to reach about 1225 thousand tons in 2017, and to about 1268 thousand tons in 2022 with ‎nearly 3.5 % increase, for this reason Libya should conducts several efforts to increase the cultivated ‎area and producing new varieties of high productivity of wheat crop in order to reduce the size of wheat ‎gap and increase the wheat self-sufficiency.‎

Keywords: wheat, food security, forecasting, exponential smoothing, Libya.‎

____________________

 ‎*Corresponding Author: Khaled R. Elbeydi. Dep. of Agricultural Economics, Fac. of Agriculture, Univ. of Tripoli, Tripoli, ‎Libya.

Phone: +  218  92 5272755. Email:  khaled712001@yahoo.com ‎